The Entry-Level Extinction

The data is stark and consistent: AI is decimating entry-level employment, particularly in technology. U.S. programmer employment fell 27.5% between 2023 and 2025 ¹. Entry-level hiring at the 15 biggest tech firms dropped 25% from 2023 to 2024 ¹. Globally, the number of fresh graduates hired by major tech companies has declined by more than 50% over three years ².

Job postings for early-career workers aged 22-25 in AI-exposed fields have decreased 13% since 2022 ³. Across occupations, 77% of executives predict moderate to extreme disruption for entry-level roles ⁴, with estimates suggesting 10-20% of entry-level white-collar jobs could be eliminated within the next one to five years ⁵.

A Global Crisis

The crisis is global. In Europe, 71% of employers are reassessing job responsibilities due to AI implementation—rising to 79% in Italy—and over a quarter have reduced hiring or cut jobs directly as a result of AI deployment ⁶. From Berlin's startups to Helsinki's AI research labs, "entry-level jobs—especially in the tech industry—are disappearing rapidly, threatening not only individual careers but the sustainability of Europe's entire innovation ecosystem" ⁷. Traditional entry-level tasks like bug fixing, UI testing, and documentation are "now performed by software or algorithms," with "generative AI and low-code platforms further accelerating this displacement" ⁷.

In January 2026, London's mayor warned that AI could trigger "mass unemployment" in the capital's core industries without intervention, announcing free AI training and a task force to help workers adapt ⁸.

The Paradox

Here's the paradox: research from Vanguard shows that occupations most exposed to AI automation are actually outperforming the rest of the labor market in job growth and wage increases ³. European Investment Bank research similarly finds that AI adoption increases labor productivity by 4% "without reducing employment, at least in the short-term" ⁹. Yet overall EU unemployment remains low at 5.8% ¹⁰.

But this aggregate view masks a crisis at the career ladder's bottom rungs. Senior positions are doing fine. It's the pathway to get there that's disappearing. As European researchers note, "macroeconomic indicators tend to lag behind firm-level changes, especially during the early stages of technological transitions. But that lag doesn't make it wise to wait. If disruption is already underway beneath the surface, waiting for it to show up in aggregate data could mean missing the window for proactive response" ¹⁰.

The Institutional Knowledge Problem

This isn't just an employment problem—it's an institutional knowledge problem. Organizations don't just have documented processes and explicit knowledge. They have tacit knowledge: the informal networks, the unwritten rules, the accumulated wisdom of "how things actually work" that gets transmitted through mentoring and apprenticeship. Harvard Business School's Amy Edmondson notes that entry-level positions are "crucial for developing future leaders" ⁴, while research shows that firms eliminating junior roles "lose future talent and weaken internal training structures. Mentorship and on-the-job learning decline, which impacts decision-making and institutional knowledge" ¹¹.

When we eliminate entry-level positions and have AI agents perform these tasks, we're not just changing who does the work—we're changing what gets learned and preserved. As senior staff retire and "senior AI" takes over managing "junior AI," organizations risk being directed by systems that lack human judgment, context, and accountability. You can't promote from within if there's no "within" to promote from.

The Federal Reserve has begun documenting this shift, with some firms noting "that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring" ¹². One manufacturer cut office staff by 15% through AI and automation ¹².

The Long-Term Risk

This creates a dangerous dynamic: short-term productivity gains that destroy the pipeline for long-term organizational capability. Companies celebrating their AI-driven efficiency today may find themselves, a decade hence, unable to make informed strategic decisions because the people who understood the business at ground level were never hired.

The problem of deferred work isn't unique to technology—and neither is the solution.

References

This article draws on research current as of January 2026.