Stuck in the middle

Bully to the left of me,
Bully to the right of me,
Stuck in the middle with who?

Such must be the plight of Ukraine as it watches powerless while talks go on between its enemy and erstwhile ally.

Is who Czechoslovakia as it looks towards Munich in 1938? Meanwhile, the European powers that "won" the First World War agreed terms with an increasingly acquisitive Germany. A smack on the wrist for the aggressor who kept all they had gained. It did not stop the aggression or the progress towards the Second World War.

Or perhaps who is Poland being carved up between Germany and Russia Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in 1939? Except Poland was unaware that they were about to be carved up. And neither party had any intention of honouring the agreement. For Germany, it was simply that they were not ready to go there yet and for Russia not ready to defend and needed time to prepare.

Or perhaps who is Eastern Europe at the end of World War II? The victors of the Second World War defined the spheres of influence and set the lines for the Cold War that followed.

Whichever case it might be it's not good company.

Czechoslovakia is a particularly bleak case. Not just for Ukraine but for the whole of Europe. But, at least in that case, there were two sides; one thought they were not ready for the fight. Today if there are two sides both equally ready? For Russia it has spent three years already on the task; much longer than it had expected. Is their capability eroded or is so much of its economy aligned to war that they have no choice? Perhaps what they want is the opportunity to redirect the war machine against a softer target and then return the economy to production and rebuild capability. While the war capability of the West is being fed into the battle at the cost of the blood of Ukraine. Economies need to be redirected to replacing consumed materials and rebuilding capacities against a more threatening future.

Unlike Poland, Ukraine is well aware that deals are being struck and yet if it's not at the table it can neither influence nor truly know the terms and impact of any agreement. When Germany and Russia carved up Poland they were supposedly friends making up for their falling out (World War I). Where are the parties to this deal on the friendship spectrum? Are US and Russia past friends who had a falling out and now want to make up and settle the falling out between them? Is it a pretend make-up while they each plan to take advantage of time to prepare for a battle to come? Whatever the eventual outcome if Poland is the model it's not good news for Ukraine.

Eastern Europe did not lead to war, however, it was not good for the region or the peace and prosperity of its people. The nature of the Cold War was more a function of the nuclear weapons deployed by the US to end the Second World War than the agreement to split up the areas of influence. There were three leaders, two sides and they were allied to deal with one enemy. They all knew the alliance would not survive a vanquished Germany. It was only a question of time before the next war would erupt. The lines warn drawn with manoeuvre and defence against a future land war in mind. The nature of the following conflict, however, was determined by the nuclear weapons demonstrated in bringing Japan to surrender.

It's not clear today that there are two sides in the room. It feels more like the carve-up of Poland. An agreement to favour the Russians that Ukraine will not accept. At best Ukraine will get a reduction in support while it continues the war and at worst another active enemy.

Who will stand in the middle with Ukraine?